基于SD模型的煤炭资源型城市城镇化发展与产业转型研究:以徐州市沛县为例

城镇化是现代化的重要标志,它是一个综合概念,不仅包括人口向城镇的集聚、城镇人口比例的上升和农村人口比例的下降,也包括国民经济中农业比例的下降和二、三产业份额的增长以及生产要素向城镇的聚集。资源型城市由于依靠单一的资源开发模式,造成三次产业结构失衡、产业链条短、产品单一,因此在城镇化的进程中具有其特殊性。本文借助于系统动力学模型,将传统城镇化研究与煤炭资源型城市产业转型纳入统一框架综合分析,以徐州市沛县为例进行实证研究,得出城镇化率与第三产业产值占GDP的比重具有同步变化趋势的结论,为产业转型政策创新和城镇化发展方向提供定量参考和决策依据。

Study on economic transformation and urbanization development of coal resources cities based on the SD model- Peixian Xuzhou is taken as an example

urbanization is an important symbol of modernization, it is a comprehensive concept, including not only the population mass to urban as well as the increase of urban population and the decline of rural population, but also includes the decline of agricultural proportion in the national economy and the growth of the secondary and tertiary industry share as well as the factors of production to the town. Resource-based cities rely on a single resource development pattern, which caused the imbalance of the three industries structure, the industry chain is short and the product is single. Therefore, it has its particularity in the process of urbanization. In this paper, by means of system dynamics model, putting the traditional urbanization research and comprehensive analysis of coal industry transformation of resources city into a unified framework, Peixian Xuzhou is taken as an example for empirical research. It is concluded that the urbanization rate and the tertiary industry output value as a share of GDP has the similar trend of synchronization, which provide quantitative reference and decision-making basis for industry transformation policy innovation and the development direction of urbanization.