我国非能源矿产勘查长期趋势分析

本文分析了1981~2015年我国非能源矿产勘查投入、成效变化与影响因素,以期为矿产勘查形势预测奠定基础。非能源矿产勘查经历了平稳发展、持续低迷、快速发展和调整下行四个阶段,根据矿产品供求、矿业利润与勘查投入关系推测,未来几年矿产勘查或将延续深度调整的趋势。在快速工业化时期,有色金属和黑色金属矿产重要程度日益上升,而到工业化后期贵金属和三稀金属重要程度开始上升。相同矿产勘查投入所获得的新发现矿产地与新增查明资源储量总体呈减少趋势。市场经济条件下,经济发展、矿产市场与矿产开发对矿产勘查活动有着直接的影响,在变化趋势上矿产勘查投入可能比矿业成本费用利润率延迟1~2年。

Analysis of Long-term Trend of Non-energy Mineral Exploration in China

As new normal continues for the economy, the situation of mineral exploration has changed greatly in China. This paper tracked the changes happened to exploration expenditures, drilling, newly-discovered ore fields, and newly-discovered reserves resources, during the past 35years from 1981 to 2015, and analyzed the factors related to economic development, mineral market, and mineral development. Since 1981, non-energy mineral exploration experienced four stages: steadily developing, continually glooming, rapid developing and rapid falling. According to the relations between the raion of profits to total industrial costs for mining industry and mineral exploration, the current falling trend will probably last in the next several years. As China entered the rapid industrilization stage, the importance of nonferrous metal and ferrous metal minerals rose relatively, while precious metal minerals and rare earth elements become more important as China enters the later stage of industrialization. With mineral exploration going on, the amount or quantity of newly-discovered ore fields and reserves resources declined on the whole for the same exploration expenditures. Under the market economy, the capital investment in exploration is closely dependent upon the economic development, mineral market and mineral development, and the changing trend of exploration expenditures is similar to the ration of profits to total industrial costs for mining industry with a lag of 1~2 years.