China's oil reserve forecast and analysis based on peak oil models |
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Authors: | Lianyong Feng Junchen Li Xiongqi Pang |
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Affiliation: | 1. Department of Business and Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing, PR China;2. Faculty of Natural Resource and Information Technology, China University of Petroleum, Beijing, PR China |
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Abstract: | In order to forecast future oil production it is necessary to know the size of the reserves and use models. In this article, we use the typical Peak Oil models, the Hu–Chen–Zhang model usually called HCZ model and the Hubbert model, which have been used commonly for forecasting in China and the world, to forecast China's oil Ultimate Recovery (URR). The former appears to give more realistic results based on an URR for China of 15.64 billion tons. The study leads to some suggestions for new policies to meet the unfolding energy situation. |
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Keywords: | Ultimate Recovery Peak oil models Energy policy |
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