复杂武器系统任务成功概率求解方法

每套武器系统与其保障系统构成了最小的军事单位，而一套武器系统又包括多种不同的装备，这些装备的完好性对于武器系统的任务成功完成具有重要的影响。武器系统的任务成功概率是武器系统维修保障能力的重要评估指标之一。本文在分别给出单台装备、多台相同装备的任务成功概率求解方法的基础上，利用复杂武器系统的任务成功逻辑关系得到复杂武器系统的任务成功概率；最后，通过计算某复杂武器系统某次任务的成功概率说明该方法的实用性。

A Solving Process for Mission Success Probability of Complex Weapon System

A basic combat unit, namely the smallest military one for a joint combat mission, is composed of a complex weapon system and its support system. A complex weapon system is composed of equipment of many kinds, of which integrity has an important effect on whether the mission of weapon system can be accomplished successfully. Mission success probability is one of important evaluation indexes of maintenance support capacity. Based on solving mission success probability of single-equipment and multi-equipment, mission success probability of weapon system is obtained by mission success logic relation. The practicability of the method is illustrated by a calculated example.