区位差异、资金需求结构与新型城镇化路径选择-基于全国县级区域的实证研究

自十八大以后，新型城镇化将是保持我国经济持续健康发展的强大引擎，这一观点已经成为政策层面和理论界的共识。从2014年3月出台的《国家新型城镇化规划（2014年～2020年）》来看，城镇化的发展理念和长期目标已经明确，但由于各地经济社会发展禀赋迥异，中央很难用统一的制度安排来规划全国范围的城镇化发展。在这一基础上，针对不同地区城镇化战略的短期路径选择和资金配置安排逐步成为理论界和实务界关注的焦点。本文从政策规划出发，借鉴相关国内外前沿理论，开创性地提出了区域城镇化潜力以及真实效率的相关概念，并结合2005年～2011年全国所有县级区域的数据，利用动态面板模型分析了地区差异条件下新型城镇化真实效率的影响因素。结果表明，经济发展滞后地区应该更关注产业转入，通过提升城镇居民就业和收入来聚集农村居民，而经济发达地区城镇化过程应该减少财政资金运用的比例，尽量选择以市场为导向的资金配置结构。

Location Characteristic,Fund Demand Structure and Path Choice of the New-type Urbanization-Evidence from Chinese County-level Data

The new-type urbanization strategy has been regarded as a booster for national economic growth after the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, though people have not reached an agreement on the selection of short-term plans and the study of the fund demand structure due to differences of regional characters and economic and social resources and development. This thesis, in the guidance of the policies and relative theories, creates the concepts of potential and true efficiency of regional urbanization, and has empirical y tested the factors that might have an impact on the real efficiency of urbanization in the hypothesis of different resources from the national county-level eco-social index with the years 2005 and 2011. The outcome shows that the urbanization planning in less developed regions needs more attention to industrial transfer to attract rural residents by increasing urban residents’ expected incomes through enterprise development whereas that in developed regions should achieve market-oriented structure of fund demand through the decrease of financial investment.