用电单耗分解模型的应用研究

为分析国民经济用电单耗的变化规律，采用单耗分解模型对影响用电单耗变化的主要因素及其对用电单耗的影响程度进行计算和分析。以山东省为例，分析近年来山东省用电单耗的变化情况，定量计算各影响因素对用电单耗变化的贡献率，并与东部沿海一些经济发达省份的用电单耗进行了对比分析，进而预测未来山东省用电单耗的变化趋势。结果表明，产业结构和能源利用效率是影响用电单耗变化的2个主要因素。单耗分解模型为用电单耗分析提供了一个方便的数学工具。

Research on the application of electricity intensity decomposition model

The variation of electricity intensity (EI) in economy was studied. The main factors that influence EI and their influences were studied by using an Intensity Decomposition Model (IDM). Taking Shandong province as an example, the revolution of EI in recent years was analyzed and the contribution of each factor to EI was calculated quantitatively. By comparing to EI in other provinces, the future trend of EI in Shandong Province was forecasted. The results show that the industrial structure and the energy consumption efficiency are the main factors that have the biggest influences on EI. IDM is a useful model to analyze the change of EI.