蒙特卡洛法在油田储量计算中的应用

蒙特卡洛法又称概率统计法，该方法以随机变量为对象，以概率论为理论基础，计算得到的结果是一条储量概率分布曲线。使用时可以按照不同的需要，选择不同可靠程度的储量数值。勘探初期可选用概率低的大储量计算方法得不到确定值的情况下，使用概率法选择一个范围值，比选用一个确定值更能反映人们对地下的认识程度，对勘探开发工作更具有指导意义。概率法被国外石油公司广泛使用，已成为资源量、储量计算的常规方法之一。

Application of the Monte- Carlo Method in Reserves Calculation of Oilfield

The Monte - Carlo Method is established using random variable values as target based on probability theory, so it is also called probability method. The result of reserves calculation by this method is a curve of probability distribution. Different reliable values might be selected according to different needs. At the earlier exploration, for example, the high reserves of the low probability are selected as the risk value of exploration for getting the most probable reserves. At the earlier development stage, the low reserves of high probability are selected for reducing the risk. When not calculating out definable values using common reserves calculation method, a scope of values selected using probability method might reflect better what of underground comparing to a definable value selected, so they have more guiding significance to the works of exploration and development. The probability method has been widely used by foreign oil companies and has become one of common methods about resources and reserves calculation. In China, the probability method has been widely used in the resources calculation, but it is scarely used in the reserves calculation.