A physically based stochastic-deterministic procedure for the estimation of flood frequency

A procedure based on the method of derived distributions is proposed for the estimation of flood frequency from ungauged watersheds. The results of previous research on rainfall characteristics and watershed response are incorporated into the proposed procedure. These rainfall characteristics are storm depth, storm duration, space and time distribution. A simplified watershed model is used which has previously given good simulation of the watershed response. Some of the rainfall and watershed model parameters are stochastic in nature and are assumed to follow various probability distributions. Monte Carlo simulation is used for the generation of the various parameter values and simulation of the peak flow hydrographs. After 5000 realizations, the frequency of the hourly and daily peak flow and the flood volume is estimated. The proposed procedure is applied to eight coastal British Columbia watersheds and the results compare well with the observed data and with fitted probability distributions. The method is easy to apply, requires limited data and is shown to be reliable. Sensitivity analysis shows that the procedure is not very sensitive to uncertainty of the parameter values and is not dependent on the parameter probability distributions used.