未确知测度模型在岩爆烈度分级预测中的应用

 针对岩爆烈度分级预测评价中诸多因素不确定性问题，应用未确知测度理论并结合工程实际，根据岩爆的特点及成因，选取最大切应力sθ、单轴抗压强度sc、单轴抗拉强度st及岩石的弹性能量指数Wet，并以应力系数sθ/sc、岩石脆性系数sc/st及弹性能量指数Wet作为岩爆烈度分级的评价指标，建立岩爆烈度分级预测的未确知测度评价模型。以国内外18组工程岩爆分析初始数据进行分级判别，根据实际情况建立各评价因子的未确知测度函数，对其进行定量分析，并利用熵计算各评价指标的权重，依照置信度识别准则进行等级判定，最后得出岩爆烈度分级预测的评价结果。并与模糊综合评判法、属性综合评判法、灰色聚类法、物元分析法及实际情况的结果进行比较。为进一步考察该模型的有效性与实用性，运用该模型对秦岭隧道工程的岩爆实例进行分析。研究结果表明：该模型判别预测结果与实际岩爆情况较吻合，且方法科学合理，意义明确，为岩爆烈度分级预测提供一种新思路。

APPLICATION OF UNASCERTAINED MEASUREMENT MODEL TO PREDICTION OF CLASSIFICATION OF ROCKBURST INTENSITY

Based on the unascertained measurement theory and the actual characteristics of the project，an unascertained measurement classifying model to predict the possibility and classification of rockburst is established. Firstly，the main factors of rockburst，such as the maximum tangential stress of the cavern wall sθ，uniaxial compressive strength sc，uniaxial tensile strength st，and the elastic energy index of rock Wet，are taken into account in the analysis. Three factors，the stress coefficient of rock sθ/sc，the brittleness coefficient of rock sc/st and the elastic energy index of rock Wet are taken into account from the aspects of the causes of rockburst and its characteristics in the analysis，according to the unascertained factors of classification prediction of rockburst. Then the unascertained measurement function is obtained based on the initial data for the analysis of the rockburst of eighteen rock projects around the world. The problems of uncertain factors in classification prediction of rockburst are solved by qualitative analysis. The index weights of all factors are calculated using entropy theory. Finally，the evaluation results of the prediction and classification of rockburst are obtained on the basis of the rule of incredible recognition. It indicates that the unascertained measurement assessment results agree well with the actual records，and are consistent with those of the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method，the attribute synthetic evalution method，the grey optimization model and the matter-elements method. Therefore，the feasibility of the proposed model is validated. Furthermore，a case of Qinling tunnel is analyzed by using the proposed method in order to study the effectiveness and feasibility of the model. The results show that the prediction results agree well with the practical records，which prove that the unascertained measurement model is effective and available，and can be applied to the prediction for the possibility and classification of rockburst in underground engineering.