城市燃气调峰负荷预测软件的研究与开发

准确地预测城市燃气用气负荷量，才能为调峰储气设施的确定及城市燃气优化调度提供最基本的设计参数。考虑近期我国燃气市场的需求，开发了城市燃气调峰负荷预测软件系统。该软件包括历史数据处理及输入模块、负荷预测模型库模块、各类型负荷预测模块、预测结果数据库输出模块、调峰负荷与储气匹配比较等5个模块。对某城市天然气调峰负荷预测的结果表明，该系统能取得满意的预测效果。

Research and Development of the Software Designed for Forecasting the Peak-load Regulation for Urban Gas

If the urban gas load can be forecasted accurately, the most essential designing parameters will be provided for the confirmation of the gas storage facilities for peak-load regulations and the most reasonable dispatch of urban gas. With view to the recent demand in gas market in China, a kind of software is designed for forecasting the peak-load gas regulation. This software includes five modules, i.e. the module of processing and importing historic data, load prediction model storehouse module, various types of load-predict module, prediction results outputting module, and the module of comparing between gas-storage ability and peak-shaving facility. The software used in a certain city has been proved to be favorably feasible to predict on the gas peak-load regulation.