基于动态成本曲线的可再生能源发电目标分解模型

为了解决可再生能源发电国家目标与省域目标的衔接问题,结合中国实际,提出一种基于动态成本曲线的可再生能源发电目标分解模型。模型首先给出了可再生能源发电行业的静态成本曲线,考虑技术进步及外部性的影响,生成动态成本曲线。给出可再生能源发电总量目标情景,依据目标分解模型,可以将总量目标分解到各个区域、各种技术,并给出各种技术的优先发展区域,各区域的优先发展技术。通过福建案例验证该模型的正确性和有效性,到2025年,该省的经济开发量可达2358万kW,碳减排量可达8720万t/a。福州、漳州、泉州和宁德市的可再生能源发电经济装机容量分别达到435万、371万,350万和366万kW装机。

Target Decomposition Model for Renewable Energy Generation Based on Dynamic Cost Curves

To resolve the problem how to combine the national target with the provincial target of renewable energy generation,a target decomposition model for renewable energy based on dynamic cost curve was proposed based on China’s reality.The static cost curves in renewable energy sector were created.And then,the dynamic cost curves of renewable energy were generated based on the technologies progress and externalities of renewable energy.Based on the target’s assumptions of renewable energy,it can be decomposed in various regions and various technologies by the target decomposition model.Morever,the priority development regions and the priority development technologies can be given.To verify the correctness and validity of the target decomposition model,as a case,the renewable energy targets of various regions and technologies in Fujian province were calculated by the target decomposition model.In 2025,Total power capacity would be up to 23.58 GW,the carbon reduction would be to 87.2×106 t/a.In Fuzhou,Zhangzhou,Quanzhou and Ningde city,the economic capacity of renewable energy generation were 4 350,3 10,3 500 and 3 660 MW,respectively.