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| 灰色模型在春运客流量预测应用中的优化 | |
| 引用本文： | 秦元庆,陈少鸿,孙德宝,郭和伟.灰色模型在春运客流量预测应用中的优化[J].控制与决策,2003,18(4):507-509. |
| 作者姓名： | 秦元庆 陈少鸿 孙德宝 郭和伟 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 华中科技大学,控制科学与工程系,湖北,武汉,430074 2. 羊城铁路总公司,广州分公司,广东,广州,510100 3. 孝感职业技术学院,科技产业总公司,湖北,孝感,432100 |
| 摘 要： | 将火车站视为本征性灰色系统，选用灰色预测方法对春运客流量作出预测，并根据实际预测结果对基本模型进行优化。采用残差预测模型和新陈代谢模型等方法，解决了预测精度和可信度的问题。实际数据表明预测结果是可信的。 |
| 关 键 词： | 客流量 灰色系统 预测模型 残差 优化 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-0920(2003)04-0507-03 |
Optimization of gray model of the passenger flux forecast during the spring festival |
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| QIN Yuan-qing ,CHEN Shao-hong ,SUN De-bao ,GUO He-wei.Optimization of gray model of the passenger flux forecast during the spring festival[J].Control and Decision,2003,18(4):507-509. | |
| Authors: | QIN Yuan-qing CHEN Shao-hong SUN De-bao GUO He-wei |
| Affiliation: | QIN Yuan-qing 1,CHEN Shao-hong 2,SUN De-bao 1,GUO He-wei 3 |
| Abstract: | According to the analysis of the passenger flux data, the railway station is taken as an essential gray system. Therefore, the gray forecast method is used to predict the passenger flux during the spring festival. Several measures are used to optimize the basal forecast model, such as choosing the optimized parameter in the error-corrected model, using new information model etc. The actual data indicate that the forecasting result is reliable. |
| Keywords: | Passenger flux Gray system Forecast model Remained error Optimize |
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