电网运行风险评估与定级体系的构建及应用

为解决风险指标体系在工程应用中存在的评估细节反映不足和风险信息不够充分的缺陷,文中提出了一种电网运行风险评估与定级体系。首先,在结构上将风险重新定义为等级、类别、概率、严重程度、原因集和后果集的集合,在类别上将风险分为减供负荷、重载或过载、电压偏移、电网解列、厂站全停和重要用户全停。其次,设计了各类风险发生概率等级、严重程度等级及风险综合等级的定级方法。最后,从信息采集、风险辨识、风险评估、风险定级和风险预警五个环节设计了体系流程,并对该体系的应用效果作了说明。

Construction and Application of Power Grid Operation Risk Assessment and Rating System

To solve engineering application defects such as lack of assessment details and risk information in the risk index system, this paper presents a power grid operation risk assessment and rating system. Firstly, redefine the risk structure as a set of risk grade, risk kind, risk probability, risk severity, reason set and consequence set, while classifying risk categories as loss of load, overload, voltage deviation, grid splitting, blackout of plant/station, and blackout of important users. Secondly, design the rating method of risk probability grade, risk severity grade and risk grade. Finally, divide the system flow into five parts as information collection, risk identification, risk assessment, risk rating and risk warning, and illustrate the system application effects in Dispatch and Control Center of State Grid Anhui Electric Power Company. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51177143), Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (No. LZ12E07002) and National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program) (No. 2011AA05A120).