风柴储孤岛微网的风险评估体系研究及应用

以孤岛运行模式下的风柴储微网为研究对象,本文提出了一种全新的孤岛微网风险指标评价体系,即负荷损失指标(Load Loss Risk, LLR)和电源损失指标(Power Loss Risk, PLR),从用电和发电两个角度全面评估其风险水平。首先,对风柴储微网各元件进行建模,特别是采用马尔可夫链建立了风电机组多状态可靠性模型,体现了风速变化的连续性。其次,在微网各元件可靠性模型的基础上,模拟微网的运行情况,并采用全新的风险评估指标量化其运行风险。最后,以欧洲典型低压风柴储微网为例,算例验证了本文所提指标的合理性,并对不同风速、风机故障率、风电装机容量以及储能容量对微网孤岛运行风险的影响进行了灵敏度分析,所得评估结果可为风柴储孤岛微网的容量配置以及规划运行提供参考。

Research and Application of the Risk Assessment System of Wind-diesel-storage Islanded Microgrid

In view of wind-diesel-storage microgrid operated in isolated operation mode, a kind of risk evaluation system of islanded microgrid with Load Loss Risk (LLR) indicator and Power Loss Risk (PLR) indicator is proposed to assess the risk level from two aspects of power consumption and power generation. First of all, the models of all components in wind-diesel-storage microgrid are built. Especially the multi-state reliability model of the wind turbine is established based on Markov chain, which reflects the change continuity of the wind speed. Secondly, based on the reliability models of all components of microgrid, the operation state of microgrid is simulated, and its risk level is assessed by using novel risk indicators. In the end, taking the European benchmark low-voltage wind-diesel-storage microgrid as example, the rationality of the proposed indicators are proved, and the effect of different wind speed, failure rate of wind turbine, energy storage capacity and wind power installed capacity on risk level are analyzed. The assessment results can provide reference for capacity allocation, planning and operation of wind-diesel-storage islanded microgrid.