Simulating Future Groundwater Recharge in Coastal and Inland Catchments

Groundwater is a primary source of drinking water in the Mediterranean, however, climate variability in conjunction with mismanagement renders it vulnerable to depletion. Spatiotemporal studies of groundwater recharge are the basis to develop strategies against this phenomenon. In this study, groundwater recharge was spatiotemporally quantified using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in one coastal and one inland hydrological basin in Greece. A double calibration/validation (CV) procedure using streamflow data and MODIS ET was conducted for the inland basin of Mouriki, whereas only ET values were used in the coastal basin of Anthemountas. Calibration and simulation recharge were accurate in both sites according to statistical indicators and previous studies. In Mouriki basin, mean recharge and runoff were estimated as 16% and 9%, respectively. In Anthemountas basin recharge to the shallow aquifer and surface runoff were estimated as 12% and 16%, respectively. According to the predicted RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, significant variations in groundwater recharge are predicted in the coastal zone for the period 2020–2040 with average annual recharges decreasing by 30% (RCP 4.5) and 25% (RCP 8.5). Variations in groundwater recharge in the inland catchment of Mouriki were insignificant for the simulated period. Anthemountas basin was characterized by higher runoff rates. Groundwater management in coastal aquifers should include detailed monitoring of hydrological parameters, reinforced groundwater recharge during winter and reduced groundwater abstraction during summer depending on the spatiotemporal distribution of groundwater recharge.