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| 蒙特卡罗法求解湖库未确知水环境容量 | |
| 引用本文： | 张明,张建云,金菊良,贺瑞敏.蒙特卡罗法求解湖库未确知水环境容量[J].水电能源科学,2008,26(6). |
| 作者姓名： | 张明 张建云 金菊良 贺瑞敏 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学,水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏,南京,210008;河海大学,水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏,南京,210008 2. 南京水利科学研究院,江苏,南京,210029南京水利科学研究院,江苏,南京,210029 3. 合肥工业大学,土木与水利工程学院,安徽,合肥,230009 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目，"十一五"国家科技支撑计划基金资助重点项目，中国气象局成都高原气象开放实验室基金资助项目 |
| 摘 要： | 针时未确知数学处理湖泊水库水环境系统众多不确定性信息中对未确知变量数、可能值区间分段数及采用的运算算子要求较高限制了未确知数学理论广泛应用的问题,提出用蒙特卡罗法模拟未确知数的可信度分布,根据满足可信度分布的未确知教试验值可直接进行未确知数运算.湖库水环境容量计算实例结果表明,该方案可行有效,计算结果可靠,对未确知数学在各学科领域广泛应用具有一定的推动价值. |
| 关 键 词： | 湖库水环境容量 不确定性分析 未确知数 蒙特卡罗模拟 |
Calculation of Unascertained Water Environmental Capacity in Lake and Reservoir Based on Monte-Carlo Method |
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| ZHANG Ming,ZHANG Jianyun,JIN Juliang HE Ruimin.Calculation of Unascertained Water Environmental Capacity in Lake and Reservoir Based on Monte-Carlo Method[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2008,26(6). | |
| Authors: | ZHANG Ming ZHANG Jianyun JIN Juliang HE Ruimin |
| Affiliation: | ZHANG Ming1,2 ZHANG Jianyun3,2 JIN Juliang4 HE Ruimin3,2(1.State Key Lab.of Hydrology-Water Resources , Hydraulic Eng.,Hohai Univ.,Nanjing 210098,China,2.Research Center for Climate Change,MWR,Nanjing 210029,3.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,4.College of Civil Eng.,Hefei Univ.of Technology,Hefei 230009,China) |
| Abstract: | Unascertained mathematics theory is an useful tool to deal with the uncertainty of unascertained information in the lake and reservoir water environmental systems.However,the widely applications of unascertained mathematics are limited due to the problems,such as the number of unascertained variables,subsection of faith degree and the operators which are used in the operation.Hence,a Monte Carlo-based operation scheme was presented to solve these problems.The faith degree of unascertained variables can be s... |
| Keywords: | water environmental capacity uncertainty analysis unascertained number Monte-Carlo simulation |
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