人-机-环系统安全风险模型研究

对人-机-环系统安全风险模型进行了研究。基于对事故致因理论的研究，提出了以系统历史行为案例记录数据为依据，建立系统初始状态-安全后果的知识表达模型；探讨了由于知识粒度导致的人类对系统初始状态与安全后果之间映射关系认知的随机性问题，从而引入安全风险的概念，并由此建立了人-机-环系统安全风险模型，作为依据安全事件历史数据评估人-机-环系统安全风险的方法；以飞行活动系统中飞行员的安全风险评估为例，对该安全风险模型进行了实例验证。

Human-Machine-Environment System Safety Risk Model

This paper is about human-machine-environment system safety risk model. Firstly, a knowledge representation model of human-machine environment system is presented. Furthermore, the knowledge granulation caused cognitive uncertainty about system safety status is described, thus elicit the concept of safety risk, as well as a human- machine- environment system safety risk model, in order to assess the system safety risk by safety occurrence data. Finally, case study on the pilot of aircraft flight operation system is presented to demonstrate the utility of the proposed model.