Dual-Interval Two-Stage Optimization for Flood Management and Risk Analyses |
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Authors: | ZhenFang Liu GuoHe Huang |
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Affiliation: | (1) Environmental Systems Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina, Regina, Sask, S4S 0A2, Canada;(2) Center of Energy and Environmental Systems Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China |
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Abstract: | In this study, a dual interval two-stage restricted-recourse programming (DITRP) method is developed for flood-diversion planning
under uncertainty. Compared with other conventional methods, DITRP improves upon them by addressing system uncertainties with
complex presentations and incorporating subjective information within its optimization framework. Uncertainties in DITRP can
be represented as probability distributions and intervals. In addition, the dual-interval concept is presented when the available
information is highly uncertain for boundaries of intervals. Moreover, decision makers’ attitudes towards system risk can
be reflected using a restricted-resource measure by controlling the variability of the recourse cost. The method has been
applied to a case study of flood management. The results indicate that reasonable solutions for planning flood management
practice have been generated which are related to decisions of flood-diversion. Several policy scenarios are analyzed, assisting
in gaining insight into the tradeoffs between risk and cost. |
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Keywords: | Decision making Dual interval Environment Flood diversion Stochastic programming Uncertainty |
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