基于突变理论的滑坡危险性评价

我国西部山区频发的滑坡灾害对当地道路建设和经济发展具有极大影响，为了给滑坡的防治提供依据，需客观地评价滑坡危险性。本文从滑坡的地质环境及诱发因素两方面出发，选取岩性、滑坡一定范围内断层距离的倒数和等 7 个指标作为评价依据，建立滑坡危险性评价突变模型，将礼州地区滑坡划分为轻度、中度、重度和极度危险 4 个等级。选取该地区威胁公路的 10 个典型滑坡进行危险性评价，评价结果与现场调查结果具有较高的吻合度。该成果可为山区滑坡的防治提供依据。

Analysis of Landslide Hazard Based on Mutation Series Method

The frequent occurrence of landslides in mountainous areas of western China has a great impact on the local road construction and economic development. In order to provide basis for the prevention and control of landslide, it is necessary to evaluate the risk of landslide objectively. We Analyzed the geological conditions and inducing factors of landslide development, then selected the sum of the reciprocal of the fault distance within a certain range of landslide, and other 7 indexes as the evaluation basis. The mutation model of landslide risk assessment was established, the risk of landslides in Lizhou was divided into four level: low hazard, moderate hazard, severe hazard and extremely hazard. Ten landslides threatening the highway were selected for risk assessment. The results are in good agreement with the actual investigation conclusion, which can provide a basis for the prevention and control of landslide in mountainous areas.