| ARIMA模型在广西短期电力负荷预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱陶业,晏小兵,李应求. ARIMA模型在广西短期电力负荷预测中的应用[J]. 电工标准与质量, 2000, 0(2) |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱陶业 晏小兵 李应求 |
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| 作者单位： | 长沙电力学院现代教育技术中心(朱陶业)，长沙电力学院应用数学研究所湖南长沙!410077(晏小兵，李应求) |
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| 基金项目： | 湖南省自然科学基金资助项目 !( 99JJY2 0 0 1) |
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| 摘 要： | 阐述了疏系数ARIMA(p ,d ,q)模型的建立方法 ,提出了适用于广西区普通日电力负荷预测的数据预处理方法 ,利用建立的动态ARIMA(p ,d ,q)模型顺利完成了对广西区普通日电力负荷 (每日 2 4个点 ,正点采集 )的预测 .全年日预测精确度均达到 95 %以上
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| 关 键 词： | 电力负荷预测 ARIMA(p d q)模型 数据预处理 |
The ARIMA Model in the Forecasting of Power Load in Guangxi |
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| ZHU Tao ye ,YAN Xiao bing ,LI Ying qiu. The ARIMA Model in the Forecasting of Power Load in Guangxi[J]. Journal of Changsha University of Electric Power(Natural Science Edition), 2000, 0(2) |
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| Authors: | ZHU Tao ye YAN Xiao bing LI Ying qiu |
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| Affiliation: | ZHU Tao ye 1,YAN Xiao bing 2,LI Ying qiu 2 |
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| Abstract: | The method of building ARIMA(p,d,q) model is expounded and the method about data pretreatment which is suitable for forecasting normal daily power load in GUANGXI area is presented at the same time; ARIMA(p,d,q)model has been successfully used to forecast normal daily power load. Precision of forecasting normal daily power load all year is better than 95%. |
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| Keywords: | power load forecasting ARIMA(p d q) data-pretreatment |
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