基于SEI3R的微信舆情演化模型

舆情演化包括信息传播和观点演化两个相互交织、相互影响的过程。利用SEIR模型描述个体传播状态转移过程,基于Deffuant 模型描述个体观点交互过程,将传播者细分为正面传播者、负面传播者和中立传播者,建立了融合信息传播和观点演化的SEI³R模型框架。在SEI³R模型框架的基础上,分析微信传播特性,定义社会加强效应和兴趣衰减效应影响下的传播概率、基于亲密度的观点交互关系,建立了微信舆情演化模型。通过仿真实验,研究了信息传播、观点演化以及相互影响的效果,对舆情事件性质、立场调整系数以及用户心理阈值等参数进行了分析。

WeChat Public Opinion Evolution Model Based on SEI3 R

The public opinion evolution includes two interwoven and influencing processes: information dissemination and opinion evolution. Using the SEIR model to describe the process of individual dissemination state transition and the Deffuant model to describe the interaction process of individual opinion, the communicator is divided into positive communicator, negative communicator and neutral communicator, and the SEI³R model framework integrating information dissemination and opinion evolution is established. On the basis of SEI³R model framework and considering the communication characteristics of WeChat, a public opinion evolution model is established in view of the fact that the dissemination probability is affected by social reinforcement effect and interest attenuation effect, and the opinion interaction depends on the familiarity. Through the simulation experiment,the effects of information dissemination, opinion evolution and mutual influence are studied, and several parameters such as the nature of public opinion events, the adjustment coefficient of position,and the psychological width of users are also analyzed.