| 基于短期覆冰预测的电网覆冰灾害风险评估方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 晏鸣宇,周志宇,文劲宇,郭创新,陆佳政,姚伟. 基于短期覆冰预测的电网覆冰灾害风险评估方法[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2016, 40(21): 168-175 |
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| 作者姓名： | 晏鸣宇 周志宇 文劲宇 郭创新 陆佳政 姚伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室(华中科技大学), 湖北省武汉市 430074,新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学), 北京市 102206,强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室(华中科技大学), 湖北省武汉市 430074,浙江大学电气工程学院, 浙江省杭州市 310027,电网输变电设备防灾减灾国家重点实验室(国网湖南省电力公司), 湖南省长沙市 410007,强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室(华中科技大学), 湖北省武汉市 430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51577075) |
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| 摘 要： | 冰雪灾害会严重影响电力系统的安全稳定运行。为准确评估覆冰情况下电网所面临的风险,提出了基于短期覆冰预测的电网覆冰灾害风险评估方法。该方法根据覆冰预测系统预测得到未来数天内的输电线路覆冰厚度,根据时变结构可靠性理论建立了输电线路时变失效率模型,建立了考虑融冰装置的输电线路修复时间模型与融冰装置使用间隔时间的模型;针对传统序贯蒙特卡洛法难以反映覆冰线路时变失效率的问题,提出一种可考虑时变失效率的序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法,并将其用于覆冰灾害下的风险评估。以IEEE RTS-79系统为研究对象,验证了所提模型与方法的有效性;分析了覆冰预测间隔时间和融冰装置数量对电网风险的影响,并给出了相关建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 输电线路 覆冰预测 风险评估 蒙特卡洛法 时变失效率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-05-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016-09-23 |
Assessment Method for Power Grid Icing Risk Based on Short-term Icing Forecasting |
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| YAN Mingyu,ZHOU Zhiyu,WEN Jinyu,GUO Chuangxin,LU Jiazheng and YAO Wei. Assessment Method for Power Grid Icing Risk Based on Short-term Icing Forecasting[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2016, 40(21): 168-175 |
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| Authors: | YAN Mingyu ZHOU Zhiyu WEN Jinyu GUO Chuangxin LU Jiazheng YAO Wei |
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| Affiliation: | State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology (Huazhong University of Science and Technology), Wuhan 430074, China,State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources (North China Electric Power University), Beijing 102206, China,State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology (Huazhong University of Science and Technology), Wuhan 430074, China,College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China,State Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Reduction for Power Grid Transmission and Distribution Equipment(State Grid Hunan Electric Power Company), Changsha 410007, China and State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology (Huazhong University of Science and Technology), Wuhan 430074, China |
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| Abstract: | Ice storm disaster has various negative impacts on power grid security and stability. To evaluate the power grid risk accurately, a risk assessment method for power grid icing based on short-time icing forecast is proposed. The ice and wind loads on lines can be forecasted by the icing forecast system. The time-varying failure rates of transmission lines can be calculated by the time-varying structure reliability theory. A restoration time model of transmission line with DC deicer is built as is a time interval model of deicer. Owing to the incapability of reflecting the time-varying failure rate of iced lines using the traditional Monte Carlo method, a sequential Monte Carlo method of solving this rate is proposed. The proposed model is tested on an IEEE RTS-79 system. The effects of the time interval of icing forecast and deicer on risk indices are analyzed and related suggestions made. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 51577075). |
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| Keywords: | transmission line icing forecast risk assessment Monte Carlo method time-varying failure rate |
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