| 600MW火电机组可靠性数据的分析及其预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙奉仲,王凯,黄新元,史月涛,王乃华.600MW火电机组可靠性数据的分析及其预测模型[J].山东大学学报(工学版),2005,35(5):41-44. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙奉仲 王凯 黄新元 史月涛 王乃华 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东大学,能源与动力工程学院,山东,济南,250061 |
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| 摘 要： | 国内积累了大量关于火电机组历年的可靠性数据,但对它们的统计分析还远远不够.对600MW机组的某些可靠性数据进行了统计分析,并建立了数学模型,同时考虑了机组运行时间对该模型的影响,运用可靠性理论对该模型进行了分析、修正和误差分析.结果表明:利用可靠性理论可以大大提高模型应用的精度,该模型可对机组未来几年内的可靠性指标和故障率进行预测.此外,结果表明了600MW机组的国内平均的强迫停运小时、降低出力等效停运小时和等效强迫停运率EFOR有降低的趋势.
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| 关 键 词： | 可靠性分析 建模 最小二乘法 威布尔分布 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-3961(2005)05-0041-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年9月13日 |
Reliability data analysis and its prediction model of the 600MW Units in Power Plants |
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| SUN Feng-zhong,WANG Kai,HUANG Xin-yuan,SHI Yue-tao,WANG Nai-hua.Reliability data analysis and its prediction model of the 600MW Units in Power Plants[J].Journal of Shandong University of Technology,2005,35(5):41-44. |
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| Authors: | SUN Feng-zhong WANG Kai HUANG Xin-yuan SHI Yue-tao WANG Nai-hua |
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| Abstract: | The reliability data of 600 MW units in power plant are statistically analyzed and a new mathematical model is developed based on the reliability theory.The impact of runtime is takem into consideration and the errors are analyzed.It is found that the accuracy of the model can be improved by using the reliability theory.The model can be used to forecast the reliability index and failure probability of units in the future.The results also show that the average forced shutdown hour,low contribution shutdown-hour and equivalent-forced shutdown-ratio have a trend to decrease. |
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| Keywords: | reliability analysis model building least squares Weibull distribution |
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