当前国际原油价格的影响因素分析

2004年以来,国际原油价格出现持续上涨,本文在综合分析基础上,将造成油价上涨的因素分为原油市场供求、金融及投机活动和国际政治影响等3个方面.认为原油价格归根结底是由供求状况决定的,油价上涨是全球经济增长的必然结果.投机、美元贬值和地缘政治不稳定等因素对油价上涨起到了推波助澜的作用.预测2005年的国际油价将稳中趋降,但不会重现低油价时代.

INFLUENTIAL FACTORS OF INTERNATIONAL PRICE OF CRUDE OIL AT PRESENT

Since 2004, the international price of crude oil has gone up continuously. Based on the all kinds of opinions, the influential factors of the rise of oil price are divided into three aspects such as the market supply and demand of crude oil, finance and speculative activities, international politics in this paper. The crude oil price depends on the supply and demand condition after all, and the rise of oil price is the certain result of the global economic growth. Speculative activities, the devaluation of U.S. dollar, and geopolitics factor enhance the rise of oil price. In 2005, the trend of international oil price is steady with a little decrease, but the low oil price age has gone for ever.