| 非开挖施工中风险概率估价方法分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢雄耀,杜军,黄宏伟,张广兴. 非开挖施工中风险概率估价方法分析[J]. 地下空间与工程学报, 2006, 2(1): 42-46 |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢雄耀 杜军 黄宏伟 张广兴 |
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| 作者单位： | 同济大学岩土工程重点实验室,上海,200092;同济大学地下建筑与工程系,上海,200092;浙江大学土木工程系,浙江,310027 |
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| 摘 要： | 由于地下的不确定性，特别是在拥挤的城市，非开挖施工常面临极大的风险。论文提出基于层次分析树的风险概率估价方法用于定量风险的分析。该方法可以方便地计算与比较潜在的附加风险，这有利于项目工程师作出更加理性的决策。将该方法应用于穿越黄浦江的一个非开挖施工的风险分析中，结果表明。可以预测较高风险的附加费用分析。
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| 关 键 词： | 风险分析 非开挖施工 |
| 文章编号： | 1673-0836（2006）01-0042-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-10-14 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-10-14 |
Risk Analysis of Trenchless Construction on Cost Probability Assessment Method |
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| XIE Xiong-yao,DU Jun,HUANG Hong-wei,ZHANG Guang-xin. Risk Analysis of Trenchless Construction on Cost Probability Assessment Method[J]. Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering, 2006, 2(1): 42-46 |
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| Authors: | XIE Xiong-yao DU Jun HUANG Hong-wei ZHANG Guang-xin |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Ceotechnical Engineeering, Tongji Unviersity, Shanghai 200092; 2. Key Laboratory of Ceotechnical Engineering , Tongji University , Shanghai 200092; 3. Departmet of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Zhejiang 3110027 |
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| Abstract: | Trenchless construction faces significant risks due to uncertainty underground, especially in a congested city. This paper puts out a risk -cost probability assessment method combined with a decision tree method. Through this method, the potential additional cost can easily be calculated and compared, which is helpful for project engineers to make a rational decision. In a case about the across Huangpu River project, Shanghai, China, the risk factors were analyzed, and cost distributiong of high risks were predicted. |
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| Keywords: | risk analysis trenchless comtruction |
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