煤与瓦斯突出预测指标临界值的选取对预测准确率的影响

系统地分析了煤与瓦斯突出预测指标临界值的选取对预测准确率的影响规律，建立了工作面煤与瓦斯突出的危险性与突出预测指标测定值的关系模式，指出指标的概念误差和测定误差是预测结果含有确定性的根本原因。在此基础上，分析了临界与预测准确率的关系，认为降低（或提高）临界值可提高预测不突出（或突出）的准确率，但过度降低（或提高）将损害生产（或安全）利益。

Influence of the determination of the critical value of coal and gas outburst prediction index on the accuracy rate of the prediction

Influence principle of the critical value determination of coal and gas outburst prediction index on the accuracy rate of the prediction is analyzed systematically for the first time. Model of the relationship between the fatalness and determined value of prediction index is founded. It is pointed out that concept error and determining error are fundamental reasons of the prediction results including indefinite character. Based on this, the relationship between the critical value and the accuracy rate of outburst and unoutburst in prediction is analyzed. It is concluded that reducing (or raising) the critical value can raise the accuracy rate of unoutburst (or outburst), but the production (or safety) would be damaged if the critical value is over reduced (or over raised).