| 基于遗传算法的参数投影寻踪回归径流预报模型及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐刚,余冲.基于遗传算法的参数投影寻踪回归径流预报模型及应用[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(9):20-23. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐刚 余冲 |
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| 作者单位： | 三峡大学 水利与环境学院， 湖北 宜昌 443002;三峡大学 水利与环境学院， 湖北 宜昌 443002 |
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| 摘 要： | 为提高径流预报精度，采用单相关系数法挑选预报因子，建立了基于遗传算法的参数投影寻踪回归径流预报模型，利用该模型对雅砻江二滩水电站月平均流量进行了预报。结果表明，与BP神经网络模型预报结果相比，投影寻踪回归模型具有更好的预报结果和更高的预报精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 径流预报 投影寻踪回归 遗传算法 BP神经网络 因子挑选 |
Application of Parametric Projection Pursuit Regression Based on
Genetic Algorithm in Runoff Forecasting |
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| XU Gang and YU Chong.Application of Parametric Projection Pursuit Regression Based on
Genetic Algorithm in Runoff Forecasting[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2013,31(9):20-23. |
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| Authors: | XU Gang and YU Chong |
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| Affiliation: | College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China;College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve the runoff forecasting accuracy, single correlation coefficient method is used to select forecast factors and the runoff forecasting model of parametric projection pursuit regression based on genetic algorithm is established. Then the model is applied to average monthly runoff forecasting of Ertan hydropower station in the Yalong River. Compared with the BP neural network, the results show that the projection pursuit regression model has better prediction effects and higher forecast accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | runoff forecast projection pursuit regression genetic algorithm back propagation neural network factor selection |
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