导弹定期维修条件下的贮存可靠性预测方法

导弹在寿命周期大部分时间处于贮存中,且在长贮过程中会进行定期检测维修。考虑到维修可能对导弹贮存可靠性的影响,论文基于导弹贮存寿命服从威布尔分布的假设,考虑存在初始失效的导弹定期维修的背景下,对最常见的修复如新、贮存失效率增大的情况,提出了贮存可靠性预测模型,并用最小二乘估计对维修后的模型参数进行了估计。最后,通过文献中的数据验证了所提的贮存可靠性预测模型,结果表明模型能较好地预测导弹贮存可靠性在定期维修条件下的变化规律。

Storage Reliability Prediction Method for Missiles Undergoing Periodic Maintenance

Missile is usually maintained in storage in most of its lifecycle,during which periodic maintenance is often applied.Taking the potential impacts of the maintenance on the system storage reliability into account,based on the assumption that the lifetime of a missile follows Weibull distribution with initial failure,themost common scenario of failure rate increases while maintenance makes the system asgood as new,is taken into account.Corresponding storage reliability estimation model is presented,estimatesof the reliability before and after each maintenance are given,wherethe parameters are estimated by least square methods.Finally,based on the data of references,the presented models are demonstrated,and the results show that the models’capability to predict missile storage reliability undergoing periodic maintenance.