基于备件保障概率分配的备件需求量预测模型

鉴于目前装备研制阶段备件需求量预测方法与系统顶层设计指标相脱节，预测结果与装备系统战备完好性要求偏差较大。通过对原有可达可用度公式的扩展，建立了可达可用度与系统级备件保障概率的关系。综合分析备件保障概率的影响要素，将备件保障概率分配到分系统、外场可更换单元（LRU）级别，进而预测装备的备件需求量。通过某型号飞机的备件需求计算案例，验证了该方法的可行性与适用性。该方法使得考虑装备底层设计要素预测出的备件需求量能够很好的契合系统顶层指标，既有利于实现装备的顶层设计要求，又增强了备件需求预测的可操作性。

Demand Prediction Model for Spare Parts Based on Fill Rate Allocation

Considered the disjunction between current spare part demand prediction methods and system top-level design requirements,as well as the large deviation between prediction results and readiness requirements of equipment system,the relationship between achieved availability and system level fill rate should be established by using augmented achieved availability.Analyzed the influence factors on the fill rate,the fill rate could be allocated to subsystems and LRU level for the prediction of spare part demand.A case on aircraft spare part demand prediction was introduced,and the prediction results verified the method’s feasibility and applicability.The spare part demand prediction integrating equipment bottom-level design elements can be well consistent with the system top-level design requirements,and the proposed method is helpful to realize the design requirement and enhance the prediction operability.