EPC模式全生命周期视角的风险系统动力学研究

EPC工程总承包模式具有投资效益高、总成本低、设计与施工协调等优势，但同时其投资规模大、采购成本高、前期工作量大的特点为项目的实施带来了相当大的潜在风险。项目管理者要避免工程风险带来的不利影响，就必须熟悉风险在工程全生命周期下的动态变化以及影响机制，并采取有效措施来降低风险的发生。系统动力学仿真模型是诊断和分析多因素风险成因的方法，可有效地处理相互作用的、动态的项目风险。基于EPC模式全生命周期视角，运用Vensim PLE软件绘制出风险全过程结构图，构建EPC模式风险系统动力学（System Dynamics）模型，分析各影响因子间的因果关系及其内在联系，对系统风险反馈信息以及仿真模拟进行分析，从而为项目管理者提供决策依据，降低风险带来的不利影响，提升管理水平。

A Study on System Dynamic Model of Risk from the Perspective of Full Life Cycle of EPC

EPC based general contracting mode has the advantages of high investment benefit，low total cost，and coordinative design and construction. However，its large investment scale，high procurement cost and large preliminary workloads also bring considerable potential risks. To avoid the adverse effects of engineering risks，project managers should be familiar with the dynamic changes and influence mechanisms of risks in the whole life cycle of the project，and then take effective measures to reduce risks. System dynamics simulation model is an effective method to diagnose and analyze the causes of multi-factor risk, which can effectively deal with the interactions and dynamics of project risk. From the perspective of the whole life cycle，this paper used Vensim PLE software to draw the whole process structure diagram of risk，and built the system dynamics model of EPC mode. This study analyzed the causal relationship between influence factors and their inner links，and analyzed the feedback information of system risk and simulation. This study provides a decision-making basis for project managers, so as to reduce the risk of adverse effects and improve the management efficiency.