基于系统动力学的沈阳市房价影响因素分析

运用系统动力学方法构建城市住宅市场仿真模型，探究影响房价变化的主要因素。结合沈阳市住宅市场的发展实际， 通过 Anylogic 软件构造系统因果关系反馈图以及流程图，再利用回路建立数学关系模型，选取房产税、贷款利率、限购政 策 3 个变量，讨论不同政策对房价产生的影响。研究发现，开征房产税，使得市场需求量明显降低；限购政策在一定时期内 可以维持房价的稳定；提高银行贷款利率，房价没有出现较大波动；在限购政策和利率综合作用下，对房价产生的影响较大。

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Housing Price of the Shenyang City Based on System Dynamics

The system dynamics method is used to develop a urban residential market simulation model，which is employed to explore the key factors affecting the housing price changes. Based on the actual development of Shenyang’s housing market, the system causality feedback chart and flow chart are constructed by Anylogic software, and then a mathematical relationship model is established by using loops. Three variables, namely, property tax, loan interest rate and purchase restriction policy, are selected to discuss the impact of different policies on housing prices. The study found that the introduction of property tax has significantly reduced the market demand. The purchase restriction policy can maintain the stability of house prices within a certain period of time. The interest rate on bank loans was raised, and the house price still kept stable. Under the combined effect of purchase restriction policy and interest rate, the impact on house prices is greater.