基于SD模型的绿色建筑项目系统脆弱性研究

绿色建筑项目系统脆弱性是隐藏于系统内部的属性之一，其对绿色建筑项目风险存在一定影响。研究绿色建筑项目系统脆弱性，进而推动绿色建筑的健康发展目的，以分析系统脆弱性驱动因素为核心内容:采用文献分析法对系统脆弱性驱动因素进行识别；通过G1赋权法确定各驱动因素的权重系数；基于敏感性、适应性和暴露性3个维度建立SD（System Dynamics）模型。通过对其中的6个常量型驱动因素进行系统动力学仿真分析，结果表明:对绿色建筑项目系统脆弱性影响显著的驱动因素为施工企业资质等级、设计积极程度和项目规模。拓展了绿色建筑项目系统脆弱性的驱动因素研究，为控制绿色建筑项目系统脆弱性指数提供理论依据。

Research on System Vulnerability of Green Buildings Based on SD Model

The vulnerability of the green building project is one attribute of its inherent nature，which influences the risk possibility of the whole project to some extent. To study the system vulnerability of green building projects and promote the healthy development of green buildings，the driving factors of the system vulnerability are analyzed as the core content. The literature analysis approach is adopted to determine factors related to the system’s vulnerability. The weights of driving factors are obtained by using the G1 weights assignment procedures. The system dynamic model（SD model）is established based on the three dimensions，including sensitivity，adaptability，and exposure. Six constant driving factors are analyzed by dynamic simulation. The results show that the qualification level of the construction enterprise，the motivation to design，and the whole project scale can significantly affect the vulnerability of the green buildings. The study has expanded the related research via investigating the driving factors of the vulnerability in green buildings，which provides a theoretical basis for controlling the system vulnerability of green buildings.