负荷预测对新能源电网多目标优化调度的影响规律研究

当前负荷预测的主要目标是提高算法精度,无法实现不同预测精度对新能源电网调度影响的量化分析,因此研究了不同负荷预测精度对新能源电网成本和二氧化碳排放量的影响。首先,确立了包含火-水-光-风电机组新能源电网的多目标函数和约束条件。其次,探讨了粒子群算法在新能源电网调度中的优化思路。再次,利用灰色算法对负荷进行预测并给出了预测结果。最后,求解了粒子束优化调度时不同负荷预测精度下新能源电网运行成本和二氧化碳排放量的数值结果,并进行了拟合规律分析。结果表明负荷预测精度和新能源电网的成本和二氧化碳排放满足二次函数关系,可为新能源电网的规划和调度提供借鉴。

A study on the influence rule of load forecasting on multi-objective optimal dispatching of a new-energy grid

The main goal of current load forecasting is to improve the accuracy of the algorithm, and it is impossible to quantify the impact of different forecasting accuracy on the dispatch of a new energy grid. Therefore, this paper studies the impact of a different load forecasting accuracy on the cost of a new energy grid and carbon dioxide emissions. First, the multi-objective function and constraints of the new energy grid including wind-solar-water-thermal power units are established. Second, the calculation using a particle swarm optimization algorithm in the optimal dispatch of the new energy grid is discussed. Third, the load forecasting is carried out using a grey algorithm and the prediction results are given. Finally, the different load forecasting accuracy of a particle beam optimal dispatch is given. The numerical results of new energy grid cost and carbon dioxide emissions are presented and the fitting rules are analyzed. The results show that the load forecasting accuracy and the cost and CO2 emissions of the new energy grid satisfy the quadratic function relationship. This can provide a reference for the planning and scheduling of a new energy grid. This work is supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2018YFB090500) and Science and Technology Project of Guangdong Power Grid Company (No. 031300KK52160028).