建筑施工安全事故致因体系与统计回归分析

事故致因理论是安全管理的基本理论，对导致事故发生的因素进行分层分级管控是减少安全事故发生概率的重要途径。基于系统思维，将建筑施工安全事故致因作为一个系统，划分为6个子系统、16个因素和43个子因素。获取了1320份施工安全事故报告和102份调查问卷，对这两类数据进行了统计和回归分析，并基于统计和回归分析的结果，从施工安全事故致因中识别出7项关键致因、5项高发致因和5项低发致因。以2019年河北衡水市翡翠华庭项目施工升降机吊笼坠落事故为例进行分析，将其实际发生的事故致因与统计回归分析结果进行比较，验证了所构建的施工安全事故致因层次与分类分级结果的合理性和实用性。

A Structural and Statistical Regression Analysis of the Causesof Construction Safety Accidents

Accident causation theory is a basic theory for safety management，and the accident cause analysis is an important way to reduce accident occurrence probability. Based on a system thinking，construction accident cause was considered as a system and decomposed into 6 subsystems，16 factors and 43 sub-factors. A total of 1320 accident investigation reports and 102 questionnaires were collected，and the statistical analysis and regression analysis were carried out for these two types of data. Through the results of statistical and regression analysis，seven critical causes，five high-occurrence causes and five low-occurrence causes were identified. Finally, a real construction accident about elevator fall in Hebei province in 2019 was adopted to make a case study，which proved the rational and feasibility of the established system.