考虑气候变化影响的台风设计风速研究

采用了一种统计确定性模型结合4种不同的全球气候预测模型考察了气候变化对台风设计风速的影响,该方法以给定的气候环境条件为驱动采用统计模型生成大量的数值台风,因而可以模拟历史和未来预测气候条件下台风的发生情况。以杭州地区为例阐述了气候变化影响下设计台风风速从20世纪末到21世纪中叶的演化情况。研究结果显示:基于历史重分析气象条件模拟到的不同重现期台风设计风速与历史观测数据的分析结果吻合较好,表明该统计模型具有可靠性。大部分的气候模型预测显示杭州地区21世纪中叶的设计台风风速将可能超过20世纪末,且100年重现期下的设计台风风速随时间呈现增长趋势。因此在抗风设计中有必要考虑气候变化对设计风速所造成的影响。

Study on design typhoon wind speed considering climate change

A statistical deterministic model combined with 4 different global climate projection models were used to investigate influence of climate change on design typhoon wind speed.This method can produce sufficient synthetic typhoons driven by given climatic environment conditions,thus it can be used to simulate typhoon under historical and projected climate conditions.Hangzhou area was used as an example to explain the influence of climate change on evolvement of design typhoon wind speed from late 20 th century to middle 21 th century.The study shows that design typhoon wind speeds of different return periods estimated from reanalysis climate condition and historical observational data matched well,indicating that the applied statistical model is accurate.Most of studied climate models project that design typhoon wind speed of Hangzhou at middle 21 th century would exceed that of late 20 th century and the design typhoon wind speed corresponding to 100-year return period increases with time.Therefore,it is necessary to consider effects of climate change on design wind speed in wind-resistant design.