改进的突变评价法在旱灾风险评价中的应用

通过分析常规突变评价法存在的缺陷，对该方法的初始综合值进行了调整计算，建立了改进的突变评价法，将集中靠近1的常规突变评价值调整到0到1之间的10个子区间，从而可以更直观地区别评价值的等级与大小。在此基础上，又进一步提出基于突变理论的旱灾风险多准则评价模型。将此评价模型应用于安徽省2005年各市旱灾风险的总体评价，并与常规突变方法和模糊综合评价法的计算结果进行对比分析。计算结果表明：本文模型计算出的风险值的分布更趋于合理，且能够清晰地反映评价值的等级与大小。

Improved catastrophe theory based evaluation method and its application to drought disaster risk evaluation

The results of ordinary catastrophe theory based evaluation method are always approximately equal to 1.0 which is not convenient to application. An improved method by adjusting the calculation formula of the integrated evaluation value and dividing the calculated ordinary catastrophic value into 10 grades, in the range from 0 to 1.0, is suggested, which makes the classification of evaluation result more clearly. On this basis, a multi rule evaluation method for drought disaster risk is developed. The method is applied to comprehensively evaluate the drought risk of the Anhui Province in 2005. The comparison with the results calculated by ordinary catastrophe theory evaluation method and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method indicates that the proposed method can clearly reflect the evaluation grade and value and the calculated risk distribution is more reasonable.