基于熵权的水资源短缺风险模糊综合评价模型及应用

针对水资源短缺风险评价中各指标的模糊性和不确定性,将信息论中的熵值理论应用于水资源短缺风险评价中,建立了基于熵权的水资源短缺风险模糊综合评价模型。采用风险率、脆弱性、可恢复性、事故周期和风险度作为区域水资源短缺风险的评价指标,建立了综合评价指标体系。运用信息熵所反映数据本身的效用值来计算评价指标的权重系数,有效地解决了权重分配困难的问题,并使得权重的确定有了一定的理论依据。实际应用结果表明,此方法简便可行、科学可靠,结果相对客观可信。

Fuzzy comprehensive assessment model for water shortage risk based on entropy weight

The entropy theory is introduced to combine with the traditional fuzzy comprehensive assessment method to establish an entropy fuzzy comprehensive assessment model.In the model the risk rate,weakness,possibility of recovery,period for reappear and risk level are defined as the indexes to establish the comprehensive assessment index system for water shortage risk of regional water resources.The coefficients of weight for evaluation factors in the model can be derived from the available value of data reflecting the information entropy,by which the problem of weight allocation can be solved and make the weight allocation more reasonable.The application to a case study indicates that the proposed method is reliable and practical.