北京地区能源消费碳排放演变的多因素动态冲击分析

本文研究了北京地区经济规模、交通运输量、产业集聚与能源消费碳排放之间的关系。通过协整检验发现,四者之间存在长期的均衡关系;利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析发现,能源消费碳排放对自身的冲击响应最大;其次是产业集聚对于节能减排具有重要作用;交通运输量在短期内对于碳排放的增加具有促进作用,改善交通运输条件是短期内节能减排的重要措施;经济规模的变化对于能源消费碳排放的冲击较小,其对能源消费的依赖性逐渐减弱,经济增长已发生结构性转变。

Multifactorial Dynamic Impulse Analysis on Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption in Beijing

This paper studies the relationship among the economic scale, the amount of trans- portation, industrial agglomeration and carbon emissions from energy consumption in Beijing. Coin- tegration test shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the four variables. Im- pulse response function and variance decomposition analysis shows that the response of carbon emis- sions from energy consumption is the biggest. The next is industrial agglomeration which plays an important role in energy saving and emissions reduction. The amount of carbon emissions increases with the increase of the amount of transportation, and improving transportation conditions is an im- portant measure of energy saving and emissions reduction in the short term. The response of eco- nomic scale to carbon emissions from the energy consumption is comparatively small; its dependence on energy consumption declines gradually, and the structure of economic growth has changed.