Deriving Reservoir Refill Operating Rules by Using the Proposed DPNS Model |
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Authors: | Pan Liu Shenglian Guo Lihua Xiong Wei Li Honggang Zhang |
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Affiliation: | (1) State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China |
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Abstract: | The dynamic programming neural-network simplex (DPNS) model, which is aimed at making some improvements to the dynamic programming
neural-network (DPN) model, is proposed and used to derive refill operating rules in reservoir planning and management. The
DPNS model consists of three stages. First, the training data set (reservoir optimal sequences of releases) is searched by
using the dynamic programming (DP) model to solve the deterministic refill operation problem. Second, with the training data
set obtained, the artificial neural network (ANN) model representing the operating rules is trained through back-propagation
(BP) algorithm. These two stages construct the standard DPN model. The third stage of DPNS is proposed to refine the operating
rules through simulation-based optimization. By choosing maximum the hydropower generation as objective function, a nonlinear
programming technique, Simplex method, is used to refine the final output of the DPN model. Both the DPNS and DPN models are
used to derive operating rules for the real time refill operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) for the year of 2007.
It is shown that the DPNS model can improve not only the probability of refill but also the mean hydropower generation when
compare with that of the DPN model. It's recommended that the objective function of ANN approach for deriving refill operating
rules should maximize the yield or minimize the loss, which can be computed from reservoir simulation during the refill period,
rather than to fit the optimal data set as well as possible. And the derivation of optimal or near-optimal operating rules
can be carried out effectively and efficiently using the proposed DPNS model. |
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Keywords: | artificial neural network dynamic programming operating rules optimal operation Three Gorges Reservoir |
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