Robust manufacturing system design using multi objective genetic algorithms,Petri nets and Bayesian uncertainty representation

Decisions involving robust manufacturing system configuration design are often costly and involve long term allocation of resources. These decisions typically remain fixed for future planning horizons and failure to design a robust manufacturing system configuration can lead to high production and inventory costs, and lost sales costs. The designers need to find optimal design configurations by evaluating multiple decision variables (such as makespan and WIP) and considering different forms of manufacturing uncertainties (such as uncertainties in processing times and product demand). This paper presents a novel approach using multi objective genetic algorithms (GA), Petri nets and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) for robust design of manufacturing systems. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a manufacturing system configuration design problem to find optimal number of machines in different manufacturing cells for a manufacturing system producing multiple products. The objective function aims at minimizing makespan, mean WIP and number of machines, while considering uncertainties in processing times, equipment failure and repairs, and product demand. The integrated multi objective GA and Petri net based modeling framework coupled with Bayesian methods of uncertainty representation provides a single tool to design, analyze and simulate candidate models while considering distribution model and parameter uncertainties.