层次分析法在石化企业加氢基地优选决策中的应用

在仔细分析研究中国石油天然气集团公司(CNPC)发展加氢的各种影响因素的基础上，利用系统工程的方法，通过层次分析，建立了加氢基地层次分析模型。利用数学方法和Delphi法把影响因素定量化，建立了CNPC加氢基地定量分析模型。选择CNPC主要的炼化企业作为预选方案，进行综合评价。由评价结果可知，大连西太平洋、大连石化、锦西石化和兰州石化将是CNPC未来发展加氢的首选基地。中长期内应以区内这些石化企业为依托，逐步建成大连和兰州两个实力雄厚的炼油基地和加氢基地，提高国际竞争力。在新疆地区和大庆地区建立加氢技术水平高、具有一定规模的骨干企业，提升在国内市场的竞争力。综合评价结果可为CNPC加氢基地的发展提供决策依据。

APPLICATION OF ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS IN OPTIMIZING AND SELECTING HYDROGENATION BASES IN PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY FOR POLICY DECISION

Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model for choosing hydrogenation bases in petrochemical industry has been built on the basis of analysis and research of these factors which influencing the development of hydrogenation technology from the application of systems engineering method. The quantitative analysis model of CNPC hydrogenation bases taking advantage of mathematics method and Delphi technique to quantify various kinds of influencing factors has been established. Main refineries belonging to CNPC were selected as the target of forward selection scheme and drew a comprehensive evaluation conclusion. This conclusion shows that the petrochemical companies in Dalian, Jinxi and Lanzhou will be the best bases of hydrogenation in the future. For the sake of raising the ability of resisting risk and the capacity of competition in the world, these companies should be built into hydrogenation bases that unify the features of both petroleum refining and chemical industry. In addition, backbone companies should be built in the region of Xinjiang and Dalian where the hydrogenation technology level and the scale of these companies may promote competition capacity in domestic market. The conclusion of evaluation can offer the policy decision basis for hydrogenation technology development of CNPC in the future.