| Abstract: | This paper aims to analyze factors influencing energy consumption pattern and emission levels in the transport sector of Delhi, and extrapolates total energy demand and the vehicular emissions, using a computer-based software called ‘Long Range Energy Alternative Planning’ (LEAP) and the associated ‘Environmental Database (EDB)’. The study is restricted to passenger modes of transport in Delhi and does not include the freight model. Travel demand is first estimated by analyzing data on vehicle population, average distance travelled, and occupancy level. Next, data on travel demand, proportion of travel demand catered by road and rail, modal split, occupancy and fuel efficiency are compiled within the LEAP framework, in order to estimate the energy demand in Delhi. In addition, emission factors are compiled under EDB module of the LEAP structure to estimate the resultant pollution loading. The LEAP model is run under five alternative scenarios to estimate the current consumption of gasoline and diesel oil in Delhi and forecast the same for the years 1994/1995, 2000/2001, 2004/2005 and 2009/2010, respectively. Under each scenario, the model also estimates emissions of CO, HC, NOx, SO2, Pb and TSP. The total emissions are translated into concentration levels attributable to the passenger transport to get an indication of air quality in Delhi. This is accomplished by the use of proportional air quality model. Finally, scenario results are analyzed to study the impact of different urban transport policy initiatives that will reduce the growth of fuel demand and emissions. The prime objective is to arrive at an optimal transport policy that limits the future growth of fuel consumption as well as air pollution. |
