五指山市近 60 年降雨量时空演变规律分析

为了解五指山市近几十年降雨量的变化规律,基于市内及周边17个雨量站/气象站资料,采用不同插值方法逐月插值,与海南省水资源二次评价对比得到合理方法;并用滑动平均法、累积距平法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验法及Morlet小波分析等方法对降雨量进行时空变化分析,得到如下结果:五指山市近60年多年平均降雨量为1 921.3mm,在空间上呈现由东北、正北向西南逐渐递减的趋势,不同丰枯情景下降雨分布略有差异,但其对地形的响应较为一致;年降雨量总体呈现显著增加的态势,并且在1988年左右存在由减少到增多的突变;借助SPSS软件,通过归因分析表明,蒸发主要影响着五指山市降雨的变化规律;降雨量存在多尺度时间效应,存在23a和16a左右的主周期,且均存在丰枯交替变化,并在未来几年均处在偏丰时期。研究结果对五指山市的水资源开发利用和规划具有现实指导意义。

Temporal and spatial evolution of precipitation in Wuzhishan City in recent 60 years

In or der to illustrat e t he v ariat ion char acteristic of precipitation in Wuzhishan City in the r ecent 60 y ears, based on the data o f 17 rainfall statio ns/ meteo ro log ical statio ns, we used different interpolation metho ds t o co nduct monthly inter po lation and compar ed the r esults w ith the Seco nd Evaluation results of H ainan Pr ovince, and thus selected the reasonable method. We ana2 lyzed t he spat ial and tempora l changes of precipitation using sliding av erag e method, cumulativ e anomaly method, Mann2Kendall no nparametric test, and M orlet w av elet analy sis. T he r esults w ere as fo llows: ( 1) The aver age precipitat ion in the past 60 years of Wuzhishan was 1921. 3mm and show ed a g radually declining tr end spatially fr om the no rtheast and north to the southwest. ( 2) The distributio n o f pr ecipitatio n differed slig htly across different scenarios, but show ed co nsistent response to topog raphy. ( 3) The annual pr ecipitatio n generally show ed a significant increasing trend, w ith a sudden change from decreasing to increasing around 1988. ( 4) The r esults of attribution analy sis w ith SPSS show ed that the ev apo ratio n mainly affected the v ariation patter n of precipitation in Wuzhishan. ( 5) T her e are multi2scale time effects o f precipitatio n and majo r cy cles of 23 years and 16 years wit h alternatio ns between wet and dr y y ears. T he next few years w ill be w et years. The abov e results hav e r ealist ic sig nificance to the dev elopment, utilization, and planning of w ater r eso urces in Wuzhishan.