基于混合参数证据网络的装备体系贡献率评估

针对装备体系能力之间关联关系复杂、评估信息不确定的问题，从能力需求满足度视角出发，提出一种基于混合参数证据网络的装备体系贡献率评估方法。基于同一层次能力之间的关联关系，构建了装备体系贡献率评估证据网络结构模型；分别提出了基于条件信度参数模型的同层次能力需求满足度评估方法和基于信度规则参数模型的跨层次能力需求满足度评估方法，根据效用函数建立了装备体系贡献率评估模型。以某反航母装备体系为例进行了建模分析，结果表明所提方法反映了装备体系整体能力的涌现性，能够全面客观地评估装备体系贡献率。

Evaluation of Equipment Contribution Rate to System-of-systems Based on Hybrid Parameter Evidential Network

An evaluation method of equipment contribution rate to system-of-systems based on hybrid parameter evidential network is proposed for the complicated correlation between the capability of equipment system-of-systems and the uncertainty of evaluating information. An evidential network structure model for evaluation of equipment contribution rate to system-of-systems is constructed based on the correlation between the capabilities of the same level. The requirement satisfactory degree evaluation methods for evaluating the capabilities of the same level based on conditional belief parameter model and the cross-level based on belief rule parameter model are proposed, respectively, and an evaluation model of equipment contribution rate to system-of-systems is established according to the utility function. An anti-aircraft carrier equipment system-of-systems is modeled and analyzed.The results show that the proposed method can reflect the emergence of the overall capability of equipment system-of-systems, and can evaluate the equipment contribution rate to system-of-systems comprehensively and objectively.