基于模糊集合分析法与圆形分布法的水库汛期分期研究

为研究水库汛期分期基本原则,以构皮滩水库控制流域洪水为例,分别采用模糊集合分析法和圆形分布法研究了水库汛期分期问题。模糊集合分析法确定的主汛期为6月28日～8月7日;圆形分布法确定的主汛期不考虑洪水量级为6月2日～8月12日,考虑洪水量级为6月4日～8月5日;后者考虑了个别出现时间较早洪水,偏保守,且洪水取样时段对主汛期划分影响较小,洪水取样量级对主汛期划分有一定影响。水库入汛判断标准宜以模糊集合分析法为基础,汛期分期宜以圆形分布法为准。

Study on Flood Season Staging Based on Fuzzy Set Analysis Method and Circle Distribution Method

For the purpose of research on the principle of flood season staging, the fuzzy set analysis method and the circle distribution method were used to calculate the flood season of Goupitan reservoir. The results show that the main flood season based the calculation of fuzzy set analysis were June 28 to August 7; the main flood season based the calculation of circle distribution method were June 2 to August 12 with not considering flood magnitude, and June 4 to August 5 with considering flood magnitude; the circle distribution method was conservative because it considered the individual abnormal flood date. The sampling period of samples less defected the flood season staging and the flood magnitude of samples defected the flood season staging certainly. It is better that the beginning and ending of the flood should be defined by using fuzzy set analysis method and the flood season should be staged by circle distribution method.