广东省生物质发电应用的影响因素分析

中国农林生物质发电装机已超过“十三五”规划的目标,但华南地区如广东省的生物质发电装机只占全国的3.2%,发展相对落后,生物质发电利用存在区域发展不平衡的问题。本文采用德尔菲法、多标准技术筛选模型及生物质发电项目财务分析模型,以广东省为例,分析其生物质发电应用的主要影响因素并提出建议。分析结果表明,广东省生物质总资源量为3 300万t,发电潜力为1 196亿kW?h,而其中的经济潜力为174亿kW?h,全省生物质发电实际利用量仅占经济潜力的17.6%,生物质发电利用仍有巨大的发展空间。大规模的生物质发电项目的原料需求量大,收集半径过大,原料价格及收集与运输成本过高,导致发电成本超过0.8元/(kW?h),大于0.75元/(kW?h)的生物质标杆电价,致使项目折现投资回收期超过30年,内部收益率不足1%,项目财务负担过重,严重制约了生物质发电利用的发展;研究引入企业所得税收优惠以及原料处理费补贴,发现项目财务主要指标均得到显著改善。建议开发前期对周边原料市场进行调研考察,将原料种类多样化并根据气候和物流特点制定详细的原料收集规划,新建生物质电厂应控制装机规模在30 MW以内,使得原料收集范围在300 km以内,以控制原料收集与运输成本;完善税收优惠政策,政策应涵盖更多的生物质原料种类,使电厂能享受相应优惠;建立原料处理费补贴机制,以原料中生物质废物垃圾比例为指标发放补贴,实现外部环境成本内部化,提高环保效益,促进广东省生物质能利用的发展。

Influence Factors Analysis of Biomass Power Generation Application in Guangdong Province

The installed capacity of biomass power plant in China has surpassed the target in the 13th Five-year Plan of Biomass Energy Development. However, only 3.2% of the capacity was installed in Guangdong province of south China region. The biomass development in Guangdong is relatively backward, and there is a problem of uneven regional development in the utilization of biomass power. In this paper, a multi-criteria technology screening model with Delphi method as well as a project level financial analysis model were used to analyze the major factors that influence the application of biomass power generation in Guangdong, and some suggestions were proposed. The result showed that, the total biomass resource in Guangdong was 33 million tons, the power generation potential was 119.6 TW?h, and the economic potential was 17.4 TW?h. Only 17.6% of the economic potential was used for power generation, the biomass potential was still abundant in Guangdong. The large biomass feedstock demand and the large feedstock collection radius caused an excessive feedstock price and transportation cost, which resulted in a high levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the project: over 0.8 RMB/(kW?h), higher than the feed-in-tariff of biomass power. The discounted payback period exceeds 30 years, the internal rate of return was less than 1%, resulted in a poor financial performance of the project, which severely limited the development of biomass energy; the income tax preferential policy and feedstock treatment subsidy can significantly improve the project’s financial performance. In the early stage of the project, the surrounding feedstock market should be investigated and analyzed, the types of feedstock should be diversified, and a detailed feedstock collection plan should be formulated according to the local climate and logistics characteristics. The installed capacity of newly-built biomass power plant should be controlled within 30 MW so that the collection radius can be within 300 km for collection and transportation cost control; improve income tax preferential policies, which should cover more types of biomass feedstock so that power plants can enjoy the policy; establish a biomass feedstock treatment fee subsidy mechanism by providing subsidy based on the proportion of biomass waste in feedstock. It can achieve internalization of external environmental costs, improve environmental benefits and promote the development of biomass energy utilization in Guangdong Province.