双联互流型水库洪水预报方案的抗误差研究

漳河水库由观音寺水库和鸡公尖水库通过半天然明槽相互连通组成,两库特性悬殊,彼此交互流注,因受明槽输水、库水位观测、动库容计算误差等的复杂影响,以往多次建立的洪水预报方案均未达到可供应用的水平.在分析双联互流型水库入库洪水误差产生特点的基础上,首先建立观音寺水库入库洪水预报方案,进而以总库入库洪水为依据确定鸡公尖水库预报方案及漳河水库的预报方案.在产汇流模型基础上,进一步应用自适应实时校正技术,使漳河水库洪水预报方案的平均确定性系数、洪峰合格率和峰现时间合格率分别达91.09%、100%和90.91%;观音寺水库洪水预报方案则分别达90.63%、100%和100%,建立了达到甲等水平的漳河水库洪水预报应用方案.

Anti-error researching of flood forecasting project of double mutual inflow reservoir

Zhanghe reservoir is composed by Guanyinsi reservoir and Jigongjian reservoir through semi-natural open channel.The characteristics of two reservoirs are great disparity,and inflow each other.Because of the complicated influence of transmiting water by open channel,observation error of reservoir level and calculation error of backwater storage,many flood forecasting projects established in the past did not come to applied level.Based on analyzing characteristics of error generation of Zhanghe reservoir flood,a forecasting project of Guanyinsi reservoir flood is established first;then the Jigongjian reservoir forecasting model and Zhanghe reservoir forecasting project are defined based on total reservoir flood.On the basis of runoff yield and concentration model,self-adaptation technique is adopted.It makes the average deterministic coefficient,the qualified rate of flood peak,the qualified rate of time to peak of Zhanghe reservoir flood forecasting project come to 91.09%,100%,90.91%. While Guanyinsi reservoir flood forecasting project comes to 90.63%,100%,100%,so as to establish the Zhanghe reservoir flood forecasting project as applied that attains first level finally.