牧区水草资源持续利用与生态系统阈值研究

本文基于水资源-草地生态-社会经济复合系统耦合机理，综合考虑水资源对地区人口、资源、环境和经济协调发展的支撑能力，应用目标规划法建立区域性“水-草-畜”系统平衡优化决策数学模型，并构建草原生态建设中“水-草-畜”系统平衡理论及调控系统。应用该模型定量化分析研究了毛乌素沙地典型牧区生态建设发展的两个关键阶段(人工种植冷季补饲型阶段和暖季放牧冷季舍饲型阶段)的水草资源承载力和相关技术经济指标，提出了研究区草地生态系统管理的阈值水平。

Study on sustainable utilization of water-grass resources and ecological threshold of pastoral area

Based on the coupling mechanism among water resources, grass ecology and social economy the goal programming method was applied to establish the optimal decision-making mathematical model for maintaining the equilibrium of regional water-grass-livestock system. The carrying capacity of water resources for harmonious developments of population, resources, environment and economy were comprehensively considered. The theory for establishing the water-grass-livestock equilibrium system and corresponding control and regulation system was proposed. The proposed model was applied to quantitatively study the carrying capacity of water-grass resources and related technical and economic indexes in two critical stages of constructing and developing ecological husbandry in Maowusu sandy area, China. These two stages are: the stage of artificial-planting-supplement-breeding in winter and the stage of grazing to pasture in warm season and stable breeding in cold season. The threshold of grassland ecosystem management in the area to be studied was suggested.