关于中国油气资源潜力的几个问题

通过多种方法,对中国的油气资源潜力、中长期的石油需求和目前油气勘探阶段等问题进行了分析研究,结果为中国的油气资源探明程度很低,石油勘探尚处在发现高峰期,天然气勘探处在发现早期;仅用某个时间段的单因素趋势诸如消费指数、GDP增长关联系数等进行油气的需求预测,将得出误差较大的预测结果。预计到2020年,国内可以新增探明石油地质储量160×10⁸～200×10⁸t,新增探明天然气地质储量8×10¹²～10×10¹²m³;中国石油进口量占消费总量的比例将会控制在40%以内。中国的石油可采资源量不小于260×10⁸t。中国目前油气资源需求的主要矛盾体现在:一是资源潜力还很大,二是资源的发现速度仍然比较慢。加快油气的发现速度、降低能耗、调整能源结构是当务之急。因此,一方面政府应加快出台一系列激励油气发现和调整能源消费的相关政策,另一方面石油公司则应继续加大新区油气勘探的投入,提高油气资源的探明速度和油气资源的转化程度,提高国内油气产量占总消费量的比例,减缓石油进口比例过高带来的压力,维护国家的石油战略安全。

Some issues on China's petroleum resource potential

Some major issues of China's oil industry,such as China's petroleum resource potential,medium-long term oil demand and present petroleum exploration stage, have been discussed by various methods. Their results indicate that the discovery maturity (percentage of ultimately proven reserve with respect to total resources) of China' s petroleum resources is very low, oil exploration remains in peak discovery stage but gas exploration is still in early discovery stage. The forecast result of oil and gas demand will be made with a large error if it is conducted only using a single factor at a certain period, such as consumption index and GDP growth correlation coefficient. By the end of 2020, the newly-added proven reserves in place in China would reach 160-200 million tons for oil and 8-10 billion m3 for natural gas respectively; the percentage of import oil in China's total consumption should not exceed 40% . It is estimated that the China' s recoverable oil resource is 260 million tons or more. In China, the main contradiction of petroleum resource demand is reflected in a great resource potential and slow resource discovery rate. The top priority task at present is accelerating petroleum discovery rate, cutting down the energy consumption, and adjusting the energy source composition. Therefore, the government should issue the relevant policies and lows of encouraging petroleum discovery and adjusting energy consumption; the oil company should continue increasing the exploration activities in frontier areas, improving the discovery rate and exploration maturity of petroleum resources, and raising the percentage of domestic oil and gas productions in total consumption, in order to reduce the pressure brought by the high percentage of import oil and to ensure the safety of national petroleum strategy.