高速公路安全与交通流特征参数关系

基于我国平原区1条典型高速公路3年的事故数据和交通流数据对两者之间的关系进行了研究.利用多变量多项式比率等方法建立了多个交通流参数和事故率之间的关系方程,并辅以三维曲面图加以直观反映.研究表明:大车比例、大小车平均速度差和饱和度是影响交通安全最为重要的3个交通流特征参数,多个交通流参数之间相互作用关系复杂,单个参数对交通安全的影响随着其他参数取值的变化而变化.

Relationship Between Traffic Flow and Safety on Freeway

With 3-year's traffic flow data and crash data of a freeway in plain terrain in China,the relationship between traffic flow and safety was analyzed.Besides the amount of traffic volume influences the crash occurrence absolutely,truck percent,the speed difference between truck and car,and the ratio of traffic volume to capacity are the most three prominent parameters.The interactive impact also existed among the traffic flow parameters inside,so how and to what extent the single parameter impacted the road safety was changeable,and some functions made sense only when other parameters were confined in the specific conditions.The authors developed several kinds of mathematical relationships that described the combined effects of traffic flow characteristics on crash occurrences,which can enable engineers to identify and implement effective countermeasures to reduce the probability of crashes.